Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 79766.025108 84203.927494 88638.729120 93399.753565 98363.052913 103381.417315 108835.691084
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 72716.258147 79528.091384 86523.623149 94234.630067 102485.463274 111038.928732 120566.059684
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 67584.021144 76021.838979 84875.879966 94838.374136 105714.466048 117206.134918 130244.549538
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 63256.169972 72870.216331 83143.524792 94903.462029 107956.975498 121966.378448 138102.080673
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 60502.190196 71149.051273 82705.342600 96129.553903 111241.641794 127674.686577 146840.843057
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 57196.063783 68565.270623 81086.020356 95828.635003 112640.012278 131140.321488 152963.537806
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 55410.860427 67565.954820 81124.921064 97280.629602 115911.494752 136627.315896 161304.054298
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 53509.979249 66307.726522 80757.185699 98166.557111 118454.443261 141230.160481 168606.508948
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 51322.379346 64597.515456 79761.995293 98229.148930 119966.033399 144591.985026 174446.109972
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 49211.197996 62877.252471 78664.005558 98085.863495 121164.442549 147536.538928 179765.223778
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 48300.960872 62542.824563 79158.643302 99784.871820 124499.435286 152954.205280 187971.832455
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 47434.603764 62211.131068 79614.852803 101404.539681 127719.871205 158233.493693 196032.340778
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 46074.249220 61245.389935 79292.462362 102090.252003 129849.886969 162275.914950 202717.254086
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 44409.796814 59844.949741 78391.929400 102033.015334 131057.509905 165211.302538 208096.434150
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 43095.371381 58832.655813 77924.023895 102466.497463 132831.632750 168809.790883 214271.451794
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 41663.876937 57618.877878 77158.751599 102489.597977 134069.877313 171741.442625 219637.438591
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 40919.956396 57254.317605 77430.193137 103783.081604 136861.810425 176558.728256 227306.709532
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 39473.775070 55931.299016 76446.983101 103460.902461 137616.803470 178869.686235 231914.193648
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 38947.803621 55788.585081 76948.523011 105003.991024 140697.513777 184042.870336 240053.349490
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 38186.973892 55307.427044 76992.213327 105945.552122 143012.780807 188273.720136 247049.655975
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 37087.493930 54339.881889 76375.521120 106012.053981 144200.700778 191095.480477 252304.172469
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 35948.660729 53284.365128 75612.249928 105859.755707 145086.854061 193526.775998 257070.420379
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 35671.413846 53384.654555 76357.529169 107665.396515 148483.166047 199119.384320 265818.104546